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| Research on small watershed non-point source pollution risk assessment:Based on the ordered multi-classification discrete choice model |
| Received:January 09, 2017 |
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| KeyWord:ecological clean small-watershed;non-point source pollution;risk assessment;ordered multi-classification discrete choice model |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | TAO Shuang-jun | Key Laboratory of Efficient Irrigation-Drainage and Agricultural Soil-Water Environment in Southern China, Ministry of Education, College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China | | | SHAO Guang-cheng | Key Laboratory of Efficient Irrigation-Drainage and Agricultural Soil-Water Environment in Southern China, Ministry of Education, College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China | sgcln@126.com | | SU Jiang-lin | Water Conservancy Bureau of Huaian District, Huaian City, Huaian 223200, China | | | LI Yu-fei | Water Conservancy Bureau of Huaian District, Huaian City, Huaian 223200, China | | | ZHANG Xin-yu | Shuhe River Water Management Bureau, Linyi 276000, China | | | ZHANG Shao-hua | Shandong Water Conservancy Vocational Collage, Rizhao 276800, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| The ordered multi-classification discrete choice model was introduced into the risk assessment of non-point source pollution in small watersheds.Based on small watershed environmental monitoring data,sediment concentration,ammonia nitrogen,total nitrogen,total phosphorus,and chemical oxygen demand,which influence the water environment of small watersheds,were selected as independent variables and pollution risk level as a dependent variable,to establish the discrimination formula of the non-point pollution risk.A Kaiser-Meyer-Olkintest of sampling adequacy and Bartlett's test of sphericity were carried out to test the correlation of the model sample data.Goodness of fit and model predictive ability test were used to evaluate the model correctness.The results show that the model sample data have good correlation,and the model has excellent performance and forecasting ability.Unlike other models,the logistic distribution model has no requirement for the variable distribution.It can evaluate different levels of nonpoint source pollution influencing factors quantitatively and calculate the probability of different non-point source pollution risks.This study used the potential indicators to calculate model param eters,which conforms to the current situation of small watersheds in China.As a result,source pollution risk assessment based on the ordered multi-classification discrete choice model is a better method for small watershed non-point source pollution risk assessment. |
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