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| Quantitative predictions of impacts of trade friction between China and the US on wheat trade and its embodied carbon emissions |
| Received:February 01, 2020 |
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| KeyWord:trade friction;agricultural trade;embodied carbon emission;climate change |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | JIANG Si-jian | Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China | | | DENG Xiang-zheng | Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China | dengxz@igsnrr.ac.cn | | ZHOU Xiao-xue | School of economics and management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China | | | WANG Guo-feng | Faculty of International Trade, Shanxi University of Finance and Economic, Taiyuan 030006, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| In order to predict and analyze the impacts of trade friction between China and the United States on China's wheat trade exports and their embodied carbon emissions. Using the dynamic global trade environment model, this paper, based on the scenario of shared social development path(SSP2), presented the embodied carbon emission changes of wheat in 2020-2030. It is found that the GDP of Hebei, Anhui, Shandong, Henan and other major grain provinces decreased by 0.338‱, 1.427‱, 0.103‱ and 2.074‱ respectively in 2030, among which the decrease of export led to the reduction of 65.36、69.53、109.86 and 152.97 tons of embodied carbon emissions of wheat export. The improvement of wheat production technology can effectively alleviate the negative impacts of trade friction on China. The conclusion is that China should further develop the modern agricultural science and technology to cope with the changes of international trade environment and its embodied carbon emission issues. |
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