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| Impact analysis of the future development scenario on risks from agricultural non-point source pollution |
| Received:February 25, 2021 |
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| KeyWord:agricultural non-point source pollution;CLUE-S model;GIS;output coefficient |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | ZHU Kangwen | College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China | | | CHEN Yucheng | College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China
Chongqing Engineering Research Center of Rural Cleaning, Chongqing 400716, China | cyc_sw_edu@163.com | | XIONG Hailing | College of Computer & Information Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China | | | ZHANG Sheng | Chongqing Academe of Eco-environmental Science, Chongqing 401147, China | | | YANG Zhimin | College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China
Chongqing Engineering Research Center of Rural Cleaning, Chongqing 400716, China | | | HUANG Lei | College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China
Chongqing Engineering Research Center of Rural Cleaning, Chongqing 400716, China | | | LEI Bo | Chongqing Academe of Eco-environmental Science, Chongqing 401147, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| The results of China's second national pollution source survey showed that agricultural non-point source pollution(ANSP) is still a main contributor to water pollution. In our analysis, we chose the Fuling District as a typical area of ANSP, based on land use data from 2010 to 2015. Our analysis integrated the advantages of CLUE-S, Markov, GIS, and an improved output risk model. This study analyzes the projected changes of ANSP risk and its response to the adjustment of output coefficients under the two scenarios of natural development(ND) and cultivated land protection(CP) from 2020 to 2030. The purpose of the study is to develop information that may help guide the selection of modes of future regional development and the establishment of polices for ANSP risk reduction. Study accuracy analysis results of the land use simulation show that the Kappa coefficient was 0.75 and the FoM exceeded 0.21, and the degree of preciseness was good. According to the modeled results, the risk of ANSP in the Fuling District decreases significantly from 2010 to 2030, especially in the towns and sub-basins near the Damu and Wuling mountains. However, the rate of risk reduction decreases over time. For example, under the ND scenario, using 5-year intervals from 2010 to 2030, the proportions of Grade Ⅶ or above risk in Qingxi Town was 46.20%, 29.69%, 25.72%, 22.20%, and 20.00%. The risk reduction in the sub-basins demonstrated a good response to the change of the output coefficient in cultivated land(i.e., the amount of fertilizer application). The simulation of the future scenario was helpful in exploring the response relationship between pollution risk and changing land use under different regional development scenarios. It also revealed the benefit of focusing on analyzing the changes of pollution risks for each of the towns or sub-basins. These results demonstrate that this method is conducive to developing strategies for the effective prevention and control of future ANSP risks in each town and sub-basin. |
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