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| Temporal characteristics and trend prediction of agricultural carbon emission in Jiangsu Province, China |
| Received:June 06, 2021 |
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| KeyWord:Jiangsu Province;agricultural carbon emissions;planting industry;animal husbandry;carbon emission peak;carbon neutral |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | QIU Zijian | School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology/Key Laboratory of High Technology Research on Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control in Jiangsu Province/Jiangsu Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology Collaborative Innovation Center, Nanjing 210044, China | | | JIN Hongmei | Institute of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China
Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Solid Organic Waste Resource Utilization, Nanjing 210095, China | | | GAO Nan | School of Biological and Pharmaceutical Engineering, Nanjing University of Technology, Nanjing 211816, China | | | XU Xuan | Institute of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China
Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Solid Organic Waste Resource Utilization, Nanjing 210095, China | | | ZHU Jinhong | School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology/Key Laboratory of High Technology Research on Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control in Jiangsu Province/Jiangsu Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology Collaborative Innovation Center, Nanjing 210044, China | | | LI Qing | School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology/Key Laboratory of High Technology Research on Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control in Jiangsu Province/Jiangsu Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology Collaborative Innovation Center, Nanjing 210044, China | | | WANG Ziqing | School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology/Key Laboratory of High Technology Research on Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control in Jiangsu Province/Jiangsu Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology Collaborative Innovation Center, Nanjing 210044, China | | | XU Yongjun | Jiangsu Institute of Modern Low Carbon Technology, Nanjing 210003, China | | | SHEN Weishou | School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology/Key Laboratory of High Technology Research on Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control in Jiangsu Province/Jiangsu Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology Collaborative Innovation Center, Nanjing 210044, China | wsshen@nuist.edu.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| In order to explorends in Jiangsu Province, the emission factor method was used to estimate the agricultural carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province the temporal characteristics of agricultural carbon and future carbon emission tre from 2000 to 2019. The STochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology(STIRPAT) model was used to predict the trends of agricultural carbon emission in the province from 2020 to 2030. The results indicated that the CO2e emissions of Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2019 showed a trend of decreasing-increasing-decreasing, and reached a peak in 2005, which is estimated to be 83 617 700 tons, of which the planting industry and animal husbandry were in 2010 and 2003, respectively. In 2005, the planting industry's emissions were much higher than that of the animal husbandry industry. The intensity of agricultural CO2e emission firstly increased and then decreased. After 2003, the intensity of emissions decreased year after year, and by 2019 it had reduced to 131 t·million yuan-1. Among the various carbon sources, rice cultivation was the largest source of agricultural carbon emissions in the province, and among the major livestock and poultry, the carbon emissions caused by pig breeding were much higher than for other livestock and poultry. From 2020 to 2030, with the development of urbanization, the increase of agricultural per capita gross domestic product(GDP) and the further reduction of agricultural carbon emission intensity, the province' s agricultural CO2e emissions will still show a downward trend. Low-carbon emission reduction and efficient agricultural economic development will also contribute toward this. Studies have shown that agriculture in Jiangsu Province has taken the lead in achieving carbon peaks, and the continued reduction of agricultural carbon emissions in the future will help accelerate the realization of the province's carbon neutral goals. |
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