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| 玛纳斯河流域生态系统服务及其权衡关系的驱动因素分析 |
| Analysis of factors affecting ecosystem service changes and trade-offs from a geospatial perspective: Insights from the Manas River Basin of Xinjiang, China |
| 投稿时间：2023-12-07 修订日期：2024-03-09 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 生态系统服务 权衡 多尺度地理加权回归 InVEST模型 玛纳斯河流域 |
| 英文关键词: ecosystem services, trade-offs, multi-scale geographically weighted regression, InVEST model, Manas River Basin |
| 基金项目:新疆自治区重点研发任务专项（2022B02017）；2023年珠海市社会发展领域科技计划项目（2320004000024） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 占主导地位的人类发展模式给生态系统服务(ESs)带来了严重的负面影响,玛纳斯河流域绿洲农业的迅速扩张加剧了社会经济发展与生态保护之间的矛盾。论文以玛纳斯河流域为研究对象,利用InVEST模型量化了碳储量(CS)、产水量(WY)和土壤保持(SR)服务的时空分布特征,并在此基础上分析了生态系统服务变化之间的权衡关系,然后通过MGWR模型揭示了生态系统变化及其权衡与驱动因素之间的空间关系。结果表明：1)2000-2015年,耕地和建设用地面积分别增加50.81%和91.95%,未利用地和草地面积分别减少16.88%和6.71%。2)CS和WY分别增加4.76%和37.12%,而SR则减少9.94%。CS、SR与WY之间存在显著的权衡关系,且权衡强度空间异质性明显,山区是权衡强度的高值区域。3)ESs变化及其权衡关系与影响因子之间关系的性质和强度在空间分布上具有异质性,土地利用动态度、植被覆盖和土壤有机碳是驱动ESs变化及其权衡关系的主导因子。我们的结果强调在玛纳斯河流域山区种植草地、绿洲区建立水资源保护区同时加大绿洲农业科技的投入是促进ESs可持续供给和缓解绿洲农业发展与生态保护之间矛盾的有效途径。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In the past few decades, the dominant human development patterns have brought serious negative effects on ecosystem services (ESs), and the rapid expansion of oasis agriculture in the Manas River Basin has intensified the conflict between socio-economic development and ecological protection. In this study, we used a professional model to evaluate the ESs of the Manas River Basin in 2000 and 2015, and quantified the trade-offs between ESs based on the changes in ESs during the study period, and then through Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) to capture the differences in the spatial variation of the effects of driving factors on ESs changes and trade-offs. The results were as follows: 1) From 2000 to 2015, the area of cropland and built-up land increased by 50.81% and 91.95%, the area of unused land and grassland decreased by 16.88% and 6.71%. 2) Carbon storage (CS) and water yield (WY) increased by 4.76% and 37.12%, while sediment retention (SR) decreased by 9.94%. The trade-offs relationship between CS, SR and WY was heterogeneous in spatial distribution, and mountainous areas was the high-value region of ESs trade-offs. 3) The intensity and properties of the correlation between the changes and trade-offs of ESs and influencing factors was heterogeneous in spatial distribution, and dynamic degree of comprehensive land use changes (LUD), vegetation coverage changes (VC), and soil organic carbon (SOC) are the main driving factors of the changes and trade-offs of ESs. Based on the results, we recommend to planting grasslands in mountainous areas, set up water resources protection areas in oasis areas, and increasing investment in oasis agricultural science and technology, to promote the sustainable supply of ESs and alleviate the conflict between oasis agricultural development and ecological protection. |
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