| 楚天舒,任一哲,杨宇辰,戴子扬,洪世腾,陈晨晨,贺雪妮,张学健,石佳奇,范婷婷.面向氮淋溶风险防控的畜禽粪便菜地承载力估算[J].农业环境科学学报,2025,44(11):2806-2819. |
| 面向氮淋溶风险防控的畜禽粪便菜地承载力估算 |
| Estimation of vegetable fields bearing capacity of animal manure targeting groundwater leaching risk mitigation |
| 投稿时间：2025-05-20 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2025-0465 |
| 中文关键词: 畜禽粪便 承载力 菜地 氮 淋溶 |
| 英文关键词: animal manure bearing capacity vegetable field nitrogen leaching |
| 基金项目:国家环境保护土壤环境管理与污染控制重点实验室开放课题（SEMPC2023006）；国家重点研发计划课题（2023YFD1801105） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 楚天舒 | 生态环境部南京环境科学研究所, 生态环境部土壤环境管理与污染控制重点实验室, 南京 210042
中国农业大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100193 | | | 任一哲 | 中国农业大学工学院, 北京 100083 | | | 杨宇辰 | 中国农业大学工学院, 北京 100083 | | | 戴子扬 | 西北农林科技大学动物医学院, 陕西 杨凌 712199 | | | 洪世腾 | 中国农业大学工学院, 北京 100083 | | | 陈晨晨 | 中国农业大学工学院, 北京 100083 | | | 贺雪妮 | 中国农业大学工学院, 北京 100083 | | | 张学健 | 衢州学院 化学与材料工程学院, 浙江 衢州 324000 | | | 石佳奇 | 生态环境部南京环境科学研究所, 生态环境部土壤环境管理与污染控制重点实验室, 南京 210042 | | | 范婷婷 | 生态环境部南京环境科学研究所, 生态环境部土壤环境管理与污染控制重点实验室, 南京 210042 | bluebird3602@126.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为协同实现区域种养平衡和氮淋溶防控，选取华北地区47个地级市菜地为研究对象，采用支持向量机算法建立菜地氮淋溶模型，提出了面向氮淋溶风险防控的畜禽粪便菜地承载力估算方法，并运用情景分析法探究不同氮淋溶阈值情况下，各市菜地可承载的畜禽养殖量。结果表明：菜地氮淋溶模型的决定系数（R2）为0.72。菜地氮淋溶量随着粪肥和无机肥施用量的增加而增加，其中22个市的主导因素为无机肥，2个市为粪肥，23个市为无机肥和粪肥共同主导。在11.3 kg·hm-2氮淋溶阈值情景下，华北47个市的畜禽粪便菜地承载力范围为0~234.5头·hm-2（以猪当量计），其中41个市的承载力低于基于蔬菜氮养分需求的承载力，氮淋溶将限制华北地区粪肥施用与畜禽养殖业发展潜力。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To achieve regional integration of planting and breeding and groundwater leaching risk mitigation, vegetable fields in 47 prefecture-level cities in north China were selected as research objects, and a vegetable field nitrogen leaching model was developed using support vector machine algorithms to estimate the vegetable field bearing capacity of animal manure targeting groundwater leaching risk mitigation. A scenario-based framework was established to simulate vegetable field bearing capacity across different cities under varying nitrogen leaching thresholds. Results showed that the nitrogen leaching model exhibited a determination coefficient（R2）of 0.72. Nitrogen leaching in vegetable fields increased with growing applications of inorganic fertilizer and manure. Regionally, inorganic fertilizer dominated in 22 cities; manure in 2 cities; and both jointly in 23 cities. Under nitrogen leaching thresholds of 11.3 kg·hm-2, the estimated vegetable field bearing capacity across 47 cities in north China ranged from 0 to 234.5 heads per hectare（expressed in pig equivalent）, 41 exhibited lower capacity than that based on vegetable nitrogen demand requirements, nitrogen leaching constrained potential for manure application and breeding development in north China. |
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