| 覃朝晖,胡成尧,范亚莉,丁志国.空气污染对粮食生产韧性的影响效应[J].农业环境科学学报,2025,44(11):2899-2912. |
| 空气污染对粮食生产韧性的影响效应 |
| Impact effects of air pollution on the grain production resilience |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-03 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2024-1050 |
| 中文关键词: PM2.5 粮食生产韧性 数字经济 粮食生产功能区 粮食安全 |
| 英文关键词: PM2.5 the grain production resilience digital economy grain production functional areas food security |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金重大项目（22&ZD124）；国家社会科学基金项目（21BMZ138） |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 970 |
| 全文下载次数: 714 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 基于2013—2022年我国31个省级面板数据，在测度粮食生产韧性的基础上，利用双重固定效应、Tobit等模型探讨空气污染对粮食生产韧性的影响效应及作用机制。结果表明：我国粮食生产韧性平均值由2013年的0.200上升到2022年的0.260，总体呈上升趋势；粮食生产韧性在粮食主产区均值始终高于全国均值，粮食主销区、粮食产销平衡区则低于全国均值。Mann-Kendall趋势检验显示，在2013年至2022年期间，除黑龙江、辽宁、新疆外的省级行政单位粮食生产韧性都显著上升。空气污染会显著抑制粮食生产韧性，分维度看，空气污染削弱了粮食生产韧性的抵抗能力与变革能力。数字经济在空气污染对粮食生产韧性的影响中发挥负向调节作用，表现为数字经济削弱了空气污染对粮食生产韧性的负向影响。门槛分析发现，空气污染对粮食生产韧性的负面影响随着粮食生产韧性的提高而降低，存在非线性特征。异质性分析显示，空气污染对粮食主产区与温带季风气候区的粮食生产韧性负面影响更强。因此，可以进一步加强空气污染监测，分地区、分行业采取针对性的空气污染治理措施；发展农村数字经济，推进粮食生产的数字化转型；因地制宜地加强基础设施建设，优化生产条件，提升粮食主产区的粮食生产韧性，降低对空气污染的敏感性，保障国家粮食安全与农业强国战略的实施。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on panel data of 31 provinces in Chinese from 2013 to 2022, this paper measured the grain production resilience and utilized models such as the double fixed effects model and the Tobit model to examine the effect and mechanism of air pollution on the grain production resilience. The results indicated that: the average resilience of grain production in China has risen from 0.200 in 2013 to 0.260 in 2022, showing an overall upward trend. The average resilience in major grain producing regions has consistently been higher than the national average, while it is lower in major grain consuming regions and regions with balanced grain production and consumption. According to the Mann-Kendall trend test, between 2013 and 2022, the resilience of grain production in all provincial administrative units, except Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Xinjiang, increases at a significance level of 5%. Air pollution significantly inhibits the grain production resilience. From a dimensional perspective, air pollution weakens the resistance and transformation capabilities of the grain production resilience. The digital economy plays a negative moderating role in the impact of air pollution on grain production resilience, as it weakens the adverse effect of air pollution on grain production resilience. Threshold analysis reveals that the negative impact of air pollution on the grain production resilience decreases as resilience increases, demonstrating a nonlinear characteristic. Heterogeneity analysis shows that air pollution has a stronger negative impact on the grain production resilience in major grain producing areas and temperate monsoon climate zone.Therefore, we should strengthen air pollution monitoring, and implement targeted air pollution control measures by region and industry. Additionally, the rural digital economy should be developed to promote the digital transformation of grain production. We should enhance infrastructure construction according to local conditions to optimize production conditions, enhance the resilience of grain production in major grain-producing areas, reduce sensitivity to air pollution, so as to ensure national food security and the implementation of the strategy for building an agricultural powerhouse. |
| HTML
查看全文
查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
|
|
|
