| 魏光辉,洪良鹏,王露阳,刘锋.气候变化下车尔臣河径流响应及生态需水研究[J].农业环境科学学报,2025,44(12):3211-3221. |
| 气候变化下车尔臣河径流响应及生态需水研究 |
| Study on runoff response and ecological water demand under climate change in the Qarqan River basin |
| 投稿时间：2024-10-16 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2024-0885 |
| 中文关键词: 气候变化 非参数检验 持续性分析 相关分析 生态需水 车尔臣河 |
| 英文关键词: climate change non-parametric testing continuity analysis related analysis ecological water demand Qarqan River |
| 基金项目:新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金面上项目（2021D01A101）；新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划项目（XJEDU2023J017）；国家自然科学基金项目（U2003204、52579015）；国家重点研发计划项目（2023YFC3206804） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本文以新疆车尔臣河近60余年的径流、气温及降水资料为基础，借助非参数检验、R/S分析、小波分析等经典理论方法，系统探讨了气候变化下径流响应特征以及流域生态需水的保障程度。结果表明：近60年来，径流、气温呈现显著增加趋势，降水变化不显著；径流、气温的突变年份分别为 2000年和 1997年，降水无法判定其突变点；径流、气温与降水的赫斯特指数（H）分别为0.751 4、0.961 9、0.732 3，其值均大于 0.5，表明未来径流、气温将持续增加、上升，降水也将持续呈现不确定性变化；径流主要有21、12、4 a的变化周期，气温主要有7、11、25 a的变化周期，降水主要有6、28 a的变化周期；斯皮尔曼相关分析表明，径流与气温、降水的变化密切相关；流域生态需水量为3.58亿m3，扣除生产需水，多年平均情况下生态需水水量完全有保证。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the runoff, temperature, and precipitation data of the Qarqan River in Xinjiang over the past 60 years, this study systematically explores the runoff response characteristics under climate change and the guarantee degree of ecological water demand in the basin by using classical theoretical methods such as non-parametric test, R/S analysis, and wavelet analysis. The results show that：over the past 60 years, runoff and temperature have shown a significant increasing trend, while the change in precipitation has been insignificant; the abrupt change years of runoff and temperature are 2000 and 1997 respectively, and the abrupt change point of precipitation cannot be determined; the Hurst indices（H）of runoff, temperature, and precipitation are 0.751 4, 0.961 9, and 0.732 3 respectively, all of which are greater than 0.5, indicating that runoff and temperature will continue to increase in the future, and precipitation will also continue to show uncertain changes; runoff mainly has change cycles of 21, 12, and 4 years, temperature mainly has change cycles of 7, 11, and 25 years, and precipitation mainly has change cycles of 6 and 28 years; Spearman correlation analysis shows that the correlation between runoff and temperature, as well as between runoff and precipitation, is closely related; the ecological water demand of the basin is 3.58×108 m3, and after deducting the production water demand, the ecological water demand is fully guaranteed under the condition of multi-year average. |
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