| 王欣雅,赵彤彤,黄少辉,杨文方,张晴雯,贾良良.化肥减量增效下山东省农牧系统氮素流动特征和氮肥减施潜力分析[J].农业环境科学学报,2026,45(1):116-126. |
| 化肥减量增效下山东省农牧系统氮素流动特征和氮肥减施潜力分析 |
| Nitrogen flow characteristics and fertilizer reduction potential of crop-livestock systems in Shandong Province under the policy of fertilizer reduction and efficiency increase |
| 投稿时间：2025-01-22 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2025-0078 |
| 中文关键词: 农牧系统 NUFER模型 减量增效 氮素利用率 减施潜力 |
| 英文关键词: crop-livestock systems NUFER model fertilizer reduction and efficiency increase nitrogen use efficiency fertilizer reduction potential |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2021YFD1901001） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 584 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 通过统计年鉴和文献收集数据，利用NUFER模型分析山东省2007年（氮肥用量达峰）、2015年（氮肥用量缓慢降低）和2022年（氮肥用量快速降低）3个典型年份农田-畜牧系统氮素养分流动特征，定量系统氮素利用率和环境损失率，评估化肥减量增效政策应用效果，并通过设置降低土壤盈余（S1）、提高畜禽粪便还田比例（S2）、优化动物饲料结构（S3）3种情景分析进一步明确山东省农牧系统氮肥减施增效潜力。结果表明：2007年、2015年、2022年山东省农牧系统氮素投入总量分别为371.6万、364.8万、299.4万t，氮素投入量呈下降趋势，其中以化肥占比最高，分别为69.9%、61.9%、55.6%，化肥用量逐渐降低。3年中，农田系统氮素利用率（NUEc）分别为36.3%、42.5%、54.7%，畜牧系统氮素利用率（NUEa）分别为27.9%、19.0%、22.8%，农牧系统氮素利用率（NUEc+a）呈现出逐步上升的趋势，从2007年的31.7%提升至2015年的33.4%，2022年时达到44.6%。2022年该地区土壤氮素累积量达到25.7万t，占总输入量的8.6%，而环境排放总量为127.0万t，占总输入量的42.4%。在环境排放的构成中，氨挥发（包括农田和畜禽粪便氨挥发）和畜禽粪便水体排放与堆置为占比最大的两种损失途径，3年中氨挥发占环境排放总量的比例为45.8%、49.0%、54.5%，畜禽粪便水体排放与堆置占比分别为16.8%、21.5%、25.6%。通过降低土壤中的氮素累积，该地区具备29.0%的氮肥减施潜力，此时，农牧系统氮素总投入量为251.1万t，农牧系统氮素利用率由44.6%增加到53.1%，食物氮代价由2.2 kg·kg-1降至1.9 kg·kg-1，环境排放量由127万t降至104.4万t；进一步提高畜禽粪便还田比例可减少化肥用量8.6%，农牧系统氮素利用率提高2.3个百分点，环境损失降低9.8%；持续优化管理并调整动物饲料结构后，该地区氮肥减施潜力可达34.3%，农牧系统氮素总投入进一步降至226.3万t，农牧系统氮素利用率增加至58.9%，食物氮代价和环境排放量分别为1.7 kg·kg-1和79.6万t，较2022年分别降低22.7%和37.3%，显著降低了氮素向环境的排放。研究表明，山东省2007—2022年化肥用量呈下降趋势，农牧系统总体氮素投入量也逐渐下降，农牧系统氮素利用率呈上升趋势，环境排放量呈下降趋势，山东省化肥减量增效取得显著成效，对区域农业绿色发展提供了重要支撑。此外，可提倡分区域布局，通过政策引导和技术支撑，协同推进S1、S2、S3技术路径，最终实现全省化肥减施潜力最大化。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| By collecting data from statistical yearbooks and literature, the NUFER model was employed to analyze the nitrogen flow characteristics in the cropland-livestock systems of Shandong Province for three typical years：2007（the amount of nitrogen fertilizer had reached its peak）, 2015（the usage rate of nitrogen fertilizer was slow）, and 2022（the amount of nitrogen fertilizer was decreasing rapidly）. We quantified the nitrogen utilization rate of the system and the environmental loss rate and evaluated the application effect of fertilizer reduction and efficiency increase policy, and further clarified the potential of fertilizer reduction and efficiency increase in the croplivestock systems in Shandong Province through setting three scenario analyses of reducing soil surplus（S1）, increasing the proportion of livestock and poultry manure returned to the field（S2）, and optimizing the structure of animal feed（S3）. In 2007, 2015 and 2022, the total nitrogen inputs of crop-livestock systems in Shandong Province were 3.716 million tons, 3.648 million tons and 2.994 million tons respectively, showing a downward trend. Chemical fertilizers accounted for the highest proportion, which were 69.9%, 61.9% and 55.6% respectively, and the usage of chemical fertilizers gradually decreased. In the three-year period, the nitrogen use efficiency in the cropping system（NUEc）was 36.3%, 42.5% and 54.7% respectively. The nitrogen use efficiency in the livestock system（NUEa）was 27.9%, 19.0% and 22.8% respectively. The nitrogen use efficiency in the crop-livestock systems（NUEc+a）was 31.7%, 33.4% and 44.6% respectively, gradually rising and reaching 44.6% in 2022. In 2022, the nitrogen accumulation in soil reached 0.257 million tons, accounting for 8.6% of the total input, while the total amount of nitrogen environmental loss was as high as 1.270 million tons, accounting for 42.4% of the total input. Among environmental loss, ammonia volatilization（including ammonia volatilization from crop and livestock manure）and the discharge and stacking of livestock manure in water bodies were the two loss pathways with the largest proportions. In the three years, the proportions of ammonia volatilization in the total environmental emissions were 45.8%, 49.0%, and 54.5% respectively, and the proportions of the discharge and stacking of livestock manure into water bodies were 16.8%, 21.5%, and 25.6% respectively. By reducing the nitrogen accumulation in the soil, this region has the potential to reduce the application of nitrogen fertilizer by 29.0%. At this time, the total nitrogen input in the crop-livestock systems was 2.511 million tons, the NUEc+a increased from 44.6% to 53.1%, the nitrogen cost of food decreased from 2.2 kg·kg-1 to 1.9 kg·kg-1, and the environmental loss decreased from 1.270 million tons to 1.044 million tons. Further increasing the proportion of livestock manure returned to the fields could reduce the usage of chemical fertilizers by 8.6%, increase the NUEc+a by 2.3 percentage points, and reduce environmental loss by 9.8%. Continuing to optimize management and adjust the structure of animal feed, there would be a 34.3% potential for reducing nitrogen fertilizer application in this region. Meanwhile, the total nitrogen input in the crop-livestock systems reduced to 2.263 million tons. The NUEc+a could increase to 58.9%. The nitrogen cost and environmental loss were 1.7 kg·kg-1 and 0.796 million tons respectively, with a decrease of 22.7% and 37.3% compared with 2022. From 2007 to 2022, the chemical fertilizers application rate in Shandong Province showed a downward trend. The overall nitrogen input in the crop-livestock systems also gradually decreased. The NUEc+ a showed an upward trend, while the environmental loss showed a downward trend. It has achieved remarkable results in fertilizer reduction and efficiency increase in Shandong Province, providing important support for the green development of regional agriculture. In addition, we highlights that the maximization of the potential for chemical fertilizer reduction can be realized across the province throughout the layout of different regions, policy guidance and technical support, as well as the coordinated advancement of the S1, S2 and S3 technical paths. |
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