| 齐海云,赵忠宝,刘圣阳,李凤鑫,耿世刚.“双碳”背景下秦皇岛市畜禽粪便碳排放与减排潜力测算分析[J].农业环境科学学报,2026,45(1):262-268. |
| “双碳”背景下秦皇岛市畜禽粪便碳排放与减排潜力测算分析 |
| Calculation and analysis of carbon emissions and emission reduction potential of livestock and poultry manure in Qinhuangdao City under the background of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-10 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2024-1080 |
| 中文关键词: 畜禽粪便 碳排放 多因素灰色模型：秦皇岛 碳减排潜力 资源化利用 |
| 英文关键词: livestock and poultry manure carbon emissions multi-factor grey model Qinhuangdao Carbon reduction potentia resource utilization |
| 基金项目:河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目（SY2022045）；河北环境工程学院校级科研项目（XJXM-YB-2024004） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 齐海云 | 河北环境工程学院, 河北 秦皇岛 066102
河北省农业生态安全重点实验室, 河北 秦皇岛 066102
河北省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究培育基地, 河北 秦皇岛 066102 | | | 赵忠宝 | 河北环境工程学院, 河北 秦皇岛 066102
河北省农业生态安全重点实验室, 河北 秦皇岛 066102
河北省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究培育基地, 河北 秦皇岛 066102 | zhaozhongbao@hebuee.edu.cn | | 刘圣阳 | 南京林业大学, 南京 210037 | liushengyang0123@foxmail.com | | 李凤鑫 | 河北环境工程学院, 河北 秦皇岛 066102 | | | 耿世刚 | 河北环境工程学院, 河北 秦皇岛 066102
河北省农业生态安全重点实验室, 河北 秦皇岛 066102
河北省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究培育基地, 河北 秦皇岛 066102 | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为厘清秦皇岛市畜禽粪便碳排放现状及碳减排潜力，以畜禽粪便管理中产生的温室气体排放量为研究对象，以秦皇岛市2013年至2022年主要4种畜禽存栏量为活动水平数据，实地调研确立基线情景，采用排放因子法和多因素灰色模型，测算秦皇岛市畜禽粪便碳排放现状，并预测其动态变化以及不同管理情景下的碳减排潜力。结果表明：2013年至2022年秦皇岛市畜禽粪便碳排放量呈现上升-下降-缓慢上升趋势；猪和牛是主要的碳排放源；在基线情景下，预计2030年秦皇岛市畜禽粪便CO2e达到137.9万t，并将处于持续上升态势；全制作沼气、全堆肥处理两种低碳情景下，2030年分别实现45.36万、65.00万t的碳减排；在管理方式动态调整情景下，可在2028年实现畜禽粪便碳排放拐点。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to clarify the current situation of carbon emissions from livestock and poultry manure and the carbon emission reduction potential in Qinhuangdao City, this study investigated greenhouse gas emissions from livestock and poultry manure management, using livestock and poultry population data from four major types in Qinhuangdao City from 2013 to 2022 as activity level data. A baseline scenario was established through field surveys. The emission factor method and multi-factor grey model were used to calculate the current carbon emissions from livestock and poultry manure in Qinhuangdao, predict their dynamic trends, and assess carbon reduction potential under different management scenarios. The results show that, from 2013 to 2022, the carbon emissions from livestock and poultry manure in Qinhuangdao City showed a trend of rising, then falling, followed by a slow rise; pigs and cattle are the main sources of carbon emissions; under the baseline scenario, the CO2e of livestock and poultry manure emissions in Qinhuangdao City is expected to reach 1 379 000 t by 2030 and will be in a continuous upward trend. Under the two low-carbon scenarios of full biogas production and full composting, carbon emissions will be reduced by 453 600 t and 650 000 t respectively by 2030. Under the scenario of dynamic adjustment of management methods, the inflection point of carbon emissions from livestock and poultry manure can be achieved in 2028. |
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