| 马鹏翔,刀承娇,杜令攀,肖亚楠,黄泽凯,阎凯,包立.基于PLUS-InVEST模型的滇池南岸多情景土地利用变化模拟预测及碳储量评估[J].农业环境科学学报,2026,45(5):1191-1202. |
| 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的滇池南岸多情景土地利用变化模拟预测及碳储量评估 |
| Multi-scenario land use change simulation prediction and carbon stock assessment along the south bank of Dianchi Lake based on PLUS-InVEST model |
| 投稿时间：2025-03-28 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2025-0302 |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用变化 碳储量 PLUS-InVEST模型 驱动因子 滇池南岸 |
| 英文关键词: land use change carbon stock PLUS-InVEST model driving factor Dianchi Lake south bank |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（32160304）；云南省自然科学基金项目（202201AT070271） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为探究滇池南岸土地利用变化对碳储量的影响，本研究应用PLUS与InVEST模型，模拟1990—2034年土地利用变化趋势，结合多情景预测，评估碳储量的时空演变特征，并分析自然与社会驱动因子的作用机制。结果显示：1990—2024年，采矿用地与建设用地分别扩张345.0%和230.0%，导致碳储量减少26.21万t，林地面积增长5.2%，碳储量回升3.47万t。交通可达性与GDP增长是驱动区域碳流失的主导因素，二者在2000—2010年间造成的碳流失量最高达31.53万t。2034年的未来情景模拟中，生态保护情景碳储量最高，为627.36万t，但耕地总流失面积达6.44 km2；城镇发展情景碳储量最低，为615.03万t，采矿用地与建设用地的扩张导致碳流失12.33万t。综上所述，滇池南岸碳流失主要由高碳密度用地向低碳密度用地转化驱动，需统筹耕地保护与生态修复，严格限制高强度开发，推动区域可持续发展。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To investigate the impacts of land use change on carbon stock along the south bank of Dianchi Lake, this study coupled the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate land use change trends from 1990 to 2034, evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon stock under multi-scenario predictions, and analyze the mechanisms of natural and socio-economic driving factors. The results indicated that: From 1990 to 2024, mining land and construction land expanded by 345.0% and 230.0%, respectively, leading to a carbon stock reduction of 2.621×105 t, while forest land increased by 5.2%, contributing to a carbon stock recovery of 3.47×104 t. Transportation accessibility and GDP growth were the dominant drivers of regional carbon loss, causing a peak carbon loss of 3.153×105 t during 2000—2010. In future scenarios for 2034, the ecological protection scenario achieved the highest carbon stock(6.273 6×106 t)but faced a total arable land loss of 6.44 km2, whereas the urban development scenario resulted in the lowest carbon stock(6.150 3×106 t), with mining and construction land expansion driving a carbon loss of 1.233×105 t. Carbon loss in the Dianchi Lake south bank is primarily driven by the conversion of highcarbon-density land to low-carbon-density land. To promote regional sustainable development, it is imperative to balance cropland protection with ecological restoration and strictly restrict high-intensity development. |
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