| 董路,孟耀斌,李盛泽,李家蔚,黄凯,于相毅,毛岩.莠去津环境分布的趋势研判——SWAT-KM在滇池流域的模拟[J].农业环境科学学报,2026,45(5):1258-1276. |
| 莠去津环境分布的趋势研判——SWAT-KM在滇池流域的模拟 |
| Projecting trend of atrazine's environmental distribution: a simulation approach demonstrated in Dianchi basin with SWAT-KM Model |
| 投稿时间：2025-07-07 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2025-0645 |
| 中文关键词: 莠去津 滇池 新污染物 多介质环境模型 农药 未来情景仿真 SWAT |
| 英文关键词: atrazine Dianchi emerging contaminants multiple media environmental model pesticide scenario simulation SWAT |
| 基金项目:云南滇池流域新污染物空间分布分析与风险预警机制研究项目（GR25A110QFC0001）；北京师范大学珠海校区“冲补强”专项 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本研究以滇池流域为研究区，采用SWAT-KM模型对莠去津在流域环境多介质中的迁移转化进行长时序连续模拟。模拟时段既涵盖2010—2021年的莠去津施用期，也包括2022—2024年的弃用期，同时结合CMIP6气象情景(SSP2-4.5)预测了2025—2030年莠去津环境分布未来趋势。在高精度水文率定基础上，采用SWAT-KM模型模拟了滇池流域水体、沉积物、土壤和大气等介质中莠去津的浓度/质量分数分布，模拟结果与2024年多点监测数据比对良好(平均85%在一个数量级以内)。结果表明：在模拟期内流域北部水体莠去津暴露浓度相对较高，其在土壤与大气中的残留分布受土地利用结构显著影响；停止施用9 a后，莠去津在河段、土壤中的模拟质量分数下降超过65%，但滇池湖泊水体浓度仍持续增高。研究表明，莠去津具有明显的长期性与潜伏性，其环境风险在弃用后仍值得持续关注。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In this study, the SWAT-KM model was employed to simulate the temporospatial dynamics of atrazine concentrations in multiple environmental compartments. The simulation period includes both the application phase from 2010 to 2021 and the post-prohibition period from 2022 to 2024, while CMIP6 meteorological scenarios(SSP2-4.5)were adopted to forecast atrazine dynamics from 2025 to 2030. Following a successful hydrological calibration, SWAT-KM reproduced atrazine concentrations as sampled at multiple sites with high accuracy in Dianchi basin(85% within one order). Simulation results reveal that higher riverine exposure often occur in the northern subbasins, and atrazine concentrations in soil and air closely related to the spatial patter of land use. The forecasting simulations show that the atrazine concentrations in reaches and soil will decrease by 65% within nine years of its application cessation, whereas those in the Dianchi Lake, both in the water column and the bed sediment, will continue to rise. These findings underscore the pronounced persistence and latency of atrazine, suggesting an alarm to its lingering environmental risks. |
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