| 王建良,蒋卓翔,刘一,李毅锐,刘岩.中国农业甲烷排放：动态核算、社会经济驱动与未来趋势[J].农业环境科学学报,2026,45(9):2435-2448. |
| 中国农业甲烷排放：动态核算、社会经济驱动与未来趋势 |
| Agricultural methane emissions in China：dynamic accounting，socio-economic drivers and future trends |
| 投稿时间：2025-11-05 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2025-1002 |
| 中文关键词: 农业甲烷排放 动态估算 LMDI模型 社会经济驱动因素 情景预测 |
| 英文关键词: agricultural methane emissions dynamic estimation LMDI model socioeconomic drivers scenario projection |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（72274213）;中国工程院科技战略咨询项目（2025-XZ-53）;北京社科基金青年学术带头人项目（24DTR039） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为克服现有核算中排放因子静态化、驱动分析宏观化的不足，本文构建了覆盖水稻、畜牧与水产养殖的省级动态排放因子模型，基于IPCC Tier 2方法核算了2000—2022年全国甲烷排放量，并创新地将“农业平均生产收入”变量引入对数平均迪式指数法（LMDI）分解框架，以精准捕捉通过经济激励推动农业生产规模扩张的直接驱动。结果显示，期内甲烷排放总量由2 721.9万t微增至2 777.5万t，增长主要源于畜牧业，且空间上向西部地区集聚。驱动分解结果表明，农业平均生产收入是排放量增长的关键社会经济因素，而技术进步带来的排放强度下降是核心减排力量。多情景模拟结果表明，整合温和措施的“稳健协同”路径可在2060年实现70.1%的减排，激进组合的“深度协同”路径减排潜力可达93.86%。为此，本文提出三期协同策略：短期应通过优化农业发展模式（调控生产强度、推动畜牧业集约化与种植结构调整等）快速抑制增长；中期需依靠技术进步（如推广饲料添加剂、稻田节水灌溉、粪便沼气工程等）持续降低排放强度；长期则须依托多政策深度协同，系统释放减排潜力。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To address the limitations of static emission factors and macro-level driver analysis in existing research, this study developed a provincial-level dynamic emission factor model covering rice cultivation, livestock, and aquaculture. Based on the IPCC Tier2 methodology, the model was used to estimate national agricultural methane emissions from 2000 to 2022. Innovatively, the variable "Agricultural Average Production Income" was incorporated into a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI）decomposition framework to more accurately capture the direct driving effect of agricultural production scale expansion. The results indicate that total agricultural methane emissions increased slightly from 27.219 million tons to 27.775 million tons during the study period. This growth was primarily driven by the livestock sector, and emissions showed a spatial trend of concentration in western China. Decomposition analysis revealed that agricultural average production income was the key socioeconomic factor driving emission increases, while the decline in emission intensity—representing technological progress—served as the core mitigating force. Multi-scenario simulations suggest that a "Steady Synergy" pathway integrating moderate measures could achieve a 70.1% reduction by 2060, while a "Deep Synergy" pathway combining all aggressive measures has a mitigation potential of up to 93.86%. Accordingly, this study proposes a three-phase synergistic strategy：In the short term, the focus should be on optimizing agricultural development models（e. g., regulating production intensity, promoting livestock intensification, and adjusting cropping structures） to rapidly curb emission growth. In the medium term, reliance on technological advancements（e. g., promoting feed additives, water-saving irrigation in paddy fields, and manure biogas projects） is essential to continuously reduce emission intensity. In the long term, deep multi-policy synergy is necessary to systematically unlock the full mitigation potential. |
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