| 孟钰博,王乃加,苗敬杰,曾平,苏雅竣,贺明慧,高西宁,王立为.北方一作区马铃薯生产碳排放特征、脱钩效应及驱动因素分析[J].农业环境科学学报,2025,44(10):2738-2748. |
| 北方一作区马铃薯生产碳排放特征、脱钩效应及驱动因素分析 |
| Carbon emission characteristics，decoupling effect and driving factors of potato production in northern first crop area |
| 投稿时间：2024-10-24 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2024-0916 |
| 中文关键词: 低碳农业 马铃薯 碳减排措施 Tapio脱钩模型 LMDI模型 |
| 英文关键词: low-carbon agriculture potato carbon emission reduction Tapio decoupling model Logarithmic mean divisia index（LMDI） model |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（32001409） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 孟钰博 | 沈阳农业大学农学院, 沈阳 110866 | | | 王乃加 | 沈阳农业大学农学院, 沈阳 110866 | | | 苗敬杰 | 河北省气象行政技术服务中心, 石家庄 050021 | | | 曾平 | 沈阳农业大学农学院, 沈阳 110866 | | | 苏雅竣 | 沈阳农业大学农学院, 沈阳 110866 | | | 贺明慧 | 沈阳市浑南区气象局, 沈阳 110186 | | | 高西宁 | 沈阳农业大学农学院, 沈阳 110866
沈阳农业与生态气象研究院, 沈阳 110166 | | | 王立为 | 沈阳农业大学农学院, 沈阳 110866
沈阳农业与生态气象研究院, 沈阳 110166 | wlw@syau.edu.cn |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于2000—2020年我国北方一作区马铃薯的实际数据，探讨碳排放特征、脱钩效应及驱动因素。本文通过 IPCC排放因子系数法对马铃薯碳排放量进行测算并分析其排放特征，采用Tapio模型分析北方一作区马铃薯碳排放脱钩特征，并根据 LMDI（Logarithmic mean divisia index）模型明确马铃薯碳排放的驱动因素。结果表明：2000—2020年北方一作区马铃薯排放量呈现先上升后下降的趋势，西北地区碳排放量最高，华北地区碳排放量其次，东北地区碳排放量最低，研究时期内碳累积减排3.32×105 t。化肥为马铃薯碳排放最主要的碳源，累积碳排放量占比为 42.25%；其次是灌溉、农膜、柴油、农药，累计碳排放量占比分别为35.25%、10.34%、9.02%、4.14%。研究期间北方一作区马铃薯脱钩状态主要以强脱钩和弱脱钩为主，表明马铃薯产业的产值呈增长趋势且碳排放处于下降趋势，当存在碳排放增长时，其增速也小于马铃薯产业产值的增速，马铃薯产业与碳排放状况总体上处于良好发展态势。马铃薯生产措施、马铃薯生产效率、马铃薯生产占比因素对马铃薯碳排放具有正向影响，种植业生产产值因素则具有负向影响，总体形成了一种类似于“对冲”的平衡状态。优化水肥管理模式是北方一作区马铃薯重要的碳减排措施，优化种植业生产结构并加大马铃薯低碳化发展将是低碳农业的关键。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This paper conducts an in-depth exploration of the characteristics of carbon emissions, the decoupling effect, and the driving factors related to potatoes in the single-cropping region of northern China. The research is based on the authentic data from 2000 to 2020. The carbon emissions of potatoes are calculated using the IPCC emission factor coefficient method. Subsequently, the emission characteristics are analyzed. To analyze the decoupling characteristics of potato carbon emissions in the single-cropping region of northern China, the Tapio model is employed. The driving factors of potato carbon emissions are identified according to the Logarithmic mean divisia index（LMDI）model. The results are as follows：From 2000 to 2020, the carbon emissions of potatoes in the single-cropping region of northern China demonstrated a trend of initially increasing and then decreasing. Among different regions, the northwest region had the highest carbon emissions, followed by the North China region. The Northeast region had the lowest carbon emissions. During the research period, a cumulative reduction of 3.32 × 105 tons of carbon emissions was achieved.Chemical fertilizers were the most prominent carbon source for potato carbon emissions. They accounted for a cumulative proportion of 42.25% of the total carbon emissions. In descending order, irrigation, agricultural plastic films, diesel oil, and pesticides followed, with cumulative carbon emission proportions of 35.25%, 10.34%, 9.02%, and 4.14% respectively. Throughout the research period, the decoupling state of potatoes in the single-cropping region of northern China was mainly characterized by strong decoupling and weak decoupling. This implies that the output value of the potato industry was on an upward trend, while carbon emissions were on a downward trend. Even when carbon emissions increased, their growth rate was lower than that of the output value of the potato industry. Overall, the potato industry and the carbon emission situation were in a favorable state of development. Factors such as potato production measures, potato production efficiency, and the proportion of potato production had a positive impact on potato carbon emissions. Conversely, the output value of crop production exerted a negative influence. These factors generally formed a balanced state similar to "hedging". Optimizing the water and fertilizer management mode is a crucial measure for reducing carbon emissions in potato cultivation in the single-cropping region of northern China. Optimizing the production structure of the planting industry and enhancing the low-carbon development of potatoes will be the key to achieving low-carbon agriculture. |
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