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| Spatial-temporal evolution of agricultural non-point sources of total phosphorus pollution loads in Tuojiang River watershed based on correction of social-economic factors |
| Received:September 24, 2021 |
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| KeyWord:agricultural non-point source pollution;total phosphorous;spatial correlation;exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA);Tuojiang River watershed |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | YAO Jing | School of Environment and Resource, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China | | | YANG Lijun | School of Environment and Resource, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China | | | XIAO Yuting | School of Environment and Resource, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China | | | FAN Min | School of Environment and Resource, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China | firstfanmin@hotmail.com | | CHEN Shu | School of Environment and Resource, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621010, China | | | LIU Yunfeng | Chengdu Tuojiang River Basin Investment Development Group Co., Ltd., Chengdu 611741, China | | | WANG Huawei | Chengdu Tuojiang River Basin Investment Development Group Co., Ltd., Chengdu 611741, China | | | CHEN Wen | Chengdu Tuojiang River Basin Investment Development Group Co., Ltd., Chengdu 611741, China | | | DENG Yue | Chengdu Tuojiang River Basin Investment Development Group Co., Ltd., Chengdu 611741, China | | | WANG Meiling | Chengdu Tuojiang River Basin Investment Development Group Co., Ltd., Chengdu 611741, China | |
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| Abstract: |
| The traditional estimation of pollution loads ignores the impact of temporal-spatial heterogeneity of socio-economic factors on the calculation results, which do not objectively reflect the actual pollution situation. Therefore, the study selected the Tuojiang River watershed as the study site and adopted the corrected pollution discharge coefficient method based on socio-economic factors to estimate total phosphorus（TP）pollution loads in the watershed. First, based on statistical data（such as population and cultivated land area, crop production, and the number of livestock）of 28 counties located in the watershed from 2011 to 2017, the GM（1, 1）model was used to predict the variation trend from 2021 to 2025. This study then calculated the TP pollution loads of each district（county）from diverse pollution sources using the corrected pollution discharge coefficient method in the future. Finally, exploratory spatial data analysis（ESDA） was used to explore the spatial distribution variation of TP pollution loads from diverse pollution sources in 2025. The results are as follows： from 2021 to 2025, the total TP pollution loads will increase steadily by 2.18%, and the increment will be 266.34 t. Among them, TP pollution loads from rural domestic sewage, rural domestic waste, and livestock and poultry pollution sources will decrease gradually, whereas TP pollution loads from agricultural runoff and agricultural solid waste pollution sources will increase yearly. The contributions of TP pollution loads from diverse pollution sources to total TP pollution loads are as follows：livestock and poultry, agricultural solid waste, agricultural runoff, rural domestic sewage, and rural domestic waste. From a spatial perspective, compared with 2017, the number of districts（counties）with high TP pollution loads from rural domestic sewage and rural domestic waste pollution sources will decrease. However, agricultural runoff, agricultural solid waste, and livestock and poultry pollution sources will increase. Moreover, there are differences in the districts（counties）with the highest TP pollution loads in 2017 and 2025. In 2025, the difference in the local cluster patterns of uncorrected and corrected TP pollution loads will be prominent. After modification, TP pollution loads from diverse pollution sources show a pattern that is similar to the pollution level cluster. The evaluation of TP pollution loads from various pollution sources in the Tuojiang River watershed based on the correction of socio-economic factors not only considers the temporal-spatial differentiation of pollution discharge coefficients but also reveals the spatial cluster pattern of TP pollution loads. The method has the characteristics of fewer parameters and easy operation, which can be extended to water environment management and pollution prevention in other similar watersheds. |
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