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| 科技进步增产的“多年平均产量移动模型”的验证 |
| The Verification of “Multi-Year Moving Average Yield Model” of Grain Production Increased by Science and Technology Progress |
| 投稿时间：2015-08-11 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2015.0191 |
| 中文关键词: 科技进步 粮食增产 多年平均产量移动模型 验证 |
| 英文关键词: science and technology progress grain production increased multi-year moving average yield model verification |
| 基金项目:中国农业科学院科技创新工程(2015-cxgc-hyl) |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 黄治平 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 郑宏艳 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 刘书田 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 米长虹 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 李敬亚 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 侯彦林 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | bjyours@sina.com | | 王农 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 蔡彦明 | 农业部环境保护科研监测所, 天津 300191 | | | 王铄今 | 北京农业信息技术研究中心, 北京 100089 | | | 侯显达 | 北京优雅施软件研发服务中心, 北京 100089 | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 应用全国、31个省、6个典型地区和16个典型县的数据对科技进步增产的"多年平均产量移动模型"进行了系统性的验证和讨论。研究结果如下:(1)定义了用相邻10年平均单产之差表示科技进步对单产的贡献及其趋势,结论是科技进步是单产增加的主要驱动力;(2)分别定义了用每年单产与5、10、20年平均单产对比关系的概率作为短、中、长期单产稳定性的指标;稳定性研究结果表明国家级大于省级、省级大于地区级、地区级大于县级,不同省、不同地区、不同县之间稳定性差别比较大,这与境内气候的互补性和农田抗御自然灾害的能力有关;(3)就全国而言,越是经济发达的地区科技进步增产加速的时间越早;发达地区单产存在增加-下降-回升阶段,下降原因是经济快速发展初期高产农田被大量占用和(或)蔬菜、水果面积大量增加,回升原因是科技进步持续作用于中、低产田而使其单产得到稳步提高。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The "multi-year moving average yield model" is considered to do with grain production increased by science and technology progress, which was verified and discussed by using the grain production data from 1949 to 2014, in 16 typical counties, 6 typical districts, and 31 provinces of China. The results showed as follows:(1)The contribution and the trend of the grain production increased by science and technology progress was defined by the minus data of the adjacent 10 years moving average yield, of which the main driving force was the scientific and technological progress;(2)As the index of yield of short, medium and long-term stability, the compared relation probability was defined respectively by the annual yield of 5 years moving average yield, 10 years moving average yield and 20 years moving average yield. The stability scale of nation was stabler than the scale of province, and the scale of province was stabler than the scale of district, and the scale of district was stabler than the scale of county. There was significant differences in stability between different provinces, different districts and different counties respectively, which was concerned to the complementarity of domestic climate and the ability of the farmland resistance to natural disasters. (3)To China, the more developed area, the earlier to accelerate grain production increased by science and technology progress. The yield of developed areas was also undergoing the stage of increasing-declining-recovering, and the reason of declining was the high yield farmland was occupied in early economic growth period, or large high yield farmland used for the vegetables and fruits. The reason of recovering was the science and technology progress had been applied to low yield farmland continuouly and the grain production could be improved steadily. |
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