|
| 农村地区可再生能源潜力分析及发展路径研究——以广东省为例 |
| Analysis of renewable energy potential and development path in rural areas：a case study of Guangdong Province |
| 投稿时间：2024-04-23 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0257 |
| 中文关键词: 可再生能源丰裕度，能源自给率，农村低碳发展，广东省 |
| 英文关键词: abundance of renewable energy, energy self-sufficiency rate, low carbon development in rural areas, Guangdong Province |
| 基金项目:中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（XDA29010500） |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 81 |
| 全文下载次数: 96 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 实现乡村振兴与“双碳”目标的有机结合，是我国农村现代化向绿色高质量发展的必经之路。本研究以广东省为例，结合地理信息系统，建立可再生能源资源评估、能源消费与碳排放预测的综合评价模型，对21个地市农村地区进行可再生能源丰裕度和自给率分析。结果表明，广东全省农村地区生物质可发电 41 540 GWh，太阳能可发电 37 225 GWh，并且具有明显地理分布特性，其中肇庆、清远等市组成的板块生物质资源和太阳能资源均具备较高的发展潜力。结合能源消费量中长期情景预测，基准情景下广东省农村地区能源消费于2031年达到峰值3 921.12万tce（t标准煤当量）。揭阳市、肇庆市和韶关市的能源自给率均超过100%，未来可实现可再生能源电力自给自足，而珠三角农村地区的能源自给率较低（均低于35%），对外依赖性较大。综上分析，本研究提出以下发展建议：根据各地区资源环境禀赋和经济社会发展实际情况，因地制宜制定农村地区生物质和太阳能发电规划以及节能降碳措施，以梯次有序推进碳达峰进程。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The organic combination of rural revitalization and the "dual carbon" goal is a necessary path for China's rural modernization to develop towards green and high-quality development. This study took Guangdong Province as an example and combined geographic information systems to establish a comprehensive evaluation model for renewable energy resource assessment, energy consumption, and carbon emission prediction. The abundance and self-sufficiency rate of renewable energy in rural areas of 21 cities were analyzed, in order to provide scientific support for the planning of low-carbon development in rural areas of Guangdong Province. The results showed that the rural areas of the province could generate 41 540 GWh of electricity from biomass and 37 225 GWh of electricity from solar energy, and had obvious geographical distribution characteristics. Among them, the sectors composed of cities such as Zhaoqing and Qingyuan had high development potential in both biomass and solar resources. Based on the long-term scenario prediction of energy consumption, the energy consumption in rural areas of Guangdong Province would reach its peak in 2031 under the baseline scenario, reaching 39.21 million tce. The energy self-sufficiency rates of Jieyang City, Zhaoqing City, and Shaoguan City all exceeded 100%, and renewable energy electricity self-sufficiency could be achieved in the future. However, the energy self-sufficiency rates in rural areas of the Pearl River Delta were relatively low（all below 35%）, indicating a high degree of external dependence. Based on the above analysis, this study proposes the following development suggestions：according to the resource and environmental endowments of each region and the actual economic and social development, rural biomass and solar power generation plans should be formulated according to local conditions, as well as energysaving and carbon reduction measures, in order to promote the process of carbon peaking in an orderly manner. |
| HTML
查看全文
查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 关闭 |
|
|
|
