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| 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的博斯腾湖流域碳储量时空演变及预测 |
| Spatial and temporal evolution and prediction of carbon stock in Bosten Lake basin based on PLUS-InVEST model |
| 投稿时间：2024-09-16 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0736 |
| 中文关键词: 碳储量，时空演变，PLUS-InVEST模型，土地利用变化，博斯腾湖流域 |
| 英文关键词: carbon stock, spatial and temporal evolution, PLUS-InVEST model, land use change, Bosten Lake basin |
| 基金项目:新疆干旱区水循环与水利用重点实验室基金项目（XJYS0907-2023-06） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 探究生态环境脆弱的干旱区流域土地利用变化对碳储量的影响，对维护生态平衡和生态系统服务的发展具有重要意义。本研究通过耦合PLUS与InVEST模型，采用1990、2000、2010年和2020年四期土地利用数据，并通过模拟2030年在自然发展、可持续发展和经济发展3种不同情景下土地利用变化情况，对博斯腾湖流域碳储量的时空变化进行模拟和分析。结果表明：1990—2020年博斯腾湖流域碳储量以4.85%的速度呈线性增长，碳储量增加1.79×107 t，耕地面积增加是博斯腾湖流域碳储量上升的主要原因。1990—2020年，博斯腾湖流域碳储量高值区域主要分布于西部、北部和西北部天山山脉和开都河周围海拔较高的地区以及博斯腾湖和中南部的879~1 299 m的耕地以及2 600~3 300 m的草地区，并逐渐向高海拔地区扩张；碳储量低值区集中于中部、东南部和西南部的焉耆盆地、绿洲平原和孔雀河地区879~1 600 m的裸地区，并逐步缩减。3 500 m以上区域碳储量呈增长趋势，冰雪、裸地等低碳储量用地转化为草地、林地、水域等高碳储量用地是碳储量增加的主要原因。2030年3种情景下碳储量仍呈增加趋势，上升幅度表现为可持续发展情景>自然发展情景>经济发展情景；研究区3 500 m以上区域碳储量变化趋势延续2020年的变化特征，冰雪对碳储量增加的间接影响不容忽视。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| It is important to explore the impact of land use change on carbon stock in the watersheds of arid zones with fragile ecological environments, which is important for the maintenance of ecological balance and the development of ecosystem services. This study analyzed and simulated the spatial and temporal changes of carbon stock in Bosten Lake basin by coupling PLUS and InVEST models, using four periods of land use data in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, and by simulating the land use changes in 2030 under natural development scenario, sustainable development scenario and economic development scenario. The results showed that from 1990 to 2020, the carbon stock in Bosten Lake basin increased linearly at a rate of 4.85%, with an increase of 1.79×107 t. The increase of cultivated land area was the main reason for the rise of carbon stock in Bosten Lake basin. From 1990 to 2020, the areas with high carbon stock in Bosten Lake basin were mainly located in the west, the north, and the northwestern Tien Shan Mountain Range and around the Kaidu River. Higher elevation areas and cultivated land of 879-1 299 m and grass areas of 2 600-3 300 m in Bosten Lake and south-central part of the basin, and gradually expanded to higher elevation areas; low value areas of carbon stock were concentrated in the bare areas of 879-1 600 m in Yanqi basin, oasis plains and Peacock River area in the central, southeastern and southwestern part of the basin, and gradually shrank. carbon stock in the area above 3 500 m showed an increasing. In 2030, the three scenarios of carbon stocks still showed an increasing trend, with a rise of SD（sustainable development scenario）>BAU（natural development scenario）>ED（economic development scenario）; the trend of carbon stock changes in the area above 3 500 m in the study area maintained the characteristics of the changes in 2020. The indirect effect of snow and ice on the increase of carbon stock should not be ignored. |
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