| The abandonment of cropland leads to resource waste, recultivation of abandoned cropland stands as an effective measure to enhance grain production capacity. Focusing on southwest China, this study employed remote sensing analysis and scenario modeling to evaluate both grain yield potential and carbon emissions from abandoned cropland recultivation. The results showed that the total area of abandoned land in southwest China was approximately 8.03×105 hm2, mainly distributed in the Yunnan-Guizhou region and southern Gansu. Among these, the areas suitable for planting rice, maize, spring potato, autumn potato, and winter wheat were 3.374×105, 3.906×105, 1.957×105, 4.909 ×105, and 2.566 ×105 hm2, respectively. Recultivation could achieve significant production capacity and demonstrated significant production potential. The combined yield potential for spring and autumn potatoes reached 2.89×106 t, accounting for approximately 16.12% of China′ s total potato production. Production capacities for rice, maize, and wheat were projected at 2.47 ×106, 2.24 ×106, and 6.73 ×105 t, respectively. Carbon emission analysis revealed that rice cultivation generated the highest emissions（1.77 ×109 kg CO2-eq）. Implementing mitigation measures could reduce emissions by approximately 8.66×108 kg CO2-eq. Recultivation crop species should be selected based on local conditions, and key carbon-reduction technologies including alternate wetting-drying for rice and slow-release fertilizers should be simultaneously promoted. Establishing supportive policy systems may also be necessary to synergistically achieve grain production increase and carbon reduction targets. |
