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| 2000—2020年中国种植业温室气体排放评估及变化 |
| Assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and changes in China′s crop farming sector，2000 to 2020 |
| 投稿时间：2025-03-19 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2025.0227 |
| 中文关键词: 种植业 温室气体 排放估算 时空变化 减排对策 |
| 英文关键词: crop farming greenhouse gas emissions estimation spatiotemporal variation emission reduction strategy |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（T2261129473） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2079 |
| 全文下载次数: 1629 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 农业生产是全球温室气体排放的第二大来源，评估种植业的碳排放总量、结构以及时空变化，对于发展绿色农业、实现农业减排增效具有重要意义。本研究基于文献分析法、IPCC清单估算法构建了种植业的温室气体（包括CO2、CH4和N2O）排放核算体系，系统估算了 2000、2010年和 2020年我国省级尺度种植业温室气体排放情况，并对排放总量、变化趋势、来源结构和空间格局变化情况进行分析。研究发现，2000—2020年我国种植业温室气体排放总量呈先上升后下降趋势，CO2排放的贡献率最大，为38.39%~45.48%，高于其他气体；水稻种植、氮肥生产和农田管理排放是种植业温室气体的主要来源，三者总排放量在 2010年最高，达47 084.11万t（ 以CO2-eq计），占种植业温室气体排放的77.52%，占比呈下降趋势。各省种植业温室气体排放量的时间变化相对较小，但省际间的总量差异较为明显，总体呈现北低南高、西低东高的分布格局。由于各省的农业发展水平和种植偏好的不同，温室气体排放构成也有一定差异，各省排放构成分为水稻驱动型、氮肥依赖型、机械密集型和耕地变化排放型。水稻种植产生的CH4排放是南方温室气体的主要来源；而西北农机使用则是温室气体的最主要来源。从时间变化特征来看，主要表现为中部南部集中连片上升、东南和东北部下降、西北部上升。研究结果可为我国种植业“双碳”目标的政策制定提供依据和建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Agriculture ranks as the second-largest global source of greenhouse gas（GHG） emissions. Evaluating the total carbon emissions, structural composition, and spatiotemporal patterns holds critical significance for promoting sustainable agriculture and achieving emission reduction targets. This study established a GHG（CO2, CH4, N2O）accounting framework for crop production through literature analysis and IPCC inventory methodology, systematically quantifying provincial-level emissions in 2000, 2010, and 2020 while analyzing emission trends, source structures, and spatial dynamics. Key findings revealed an initial increase followed by decline in China ′s agricultural GHG emissions from 2000 to 2020, with CO2 contributing the largest proportion（38.39%-45.48%）. Rice cultivation, nitrogen fertilizer production, and field management constituted primary emission sources, peaking at 470.841 1 million metric tons CO2-eq in 2010 （77.52% of total emissions）, their relative contribution had gradually decreased. Provincial emissions exhibited minimal temporal fluctuation but substantial spatial heterogeneity, demonstrating a low north-high south, low west-high east distribution pattern. Due to disparities in agricultural development levels and cropping preferences, emission compositions varied among provinces, categorized into four types：rice-driven, nitrogen fertilizer-dependent, machinery-intensive, and land -use-change emissions. In southern regions, CH 4 emissions from rice cultivation dominated greenhouse gas sources, while in the northwest, agricultural machinery use constituted the primary emission source. Temporally, emissions display concentrated increased in central and southern regions, declined in the southeast and northeast, and a rising trend in the northwest. The results can provide refference for policy-making in respect of carbon emissions in China′s crop planting. |
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