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| 农业社会化服务对农地碳排放强度的影响——基于规模经营和技术进步的作用效应 |
| Impacts of agricultural socialization services on carbon emission intensity of farmland：effects based on scale management and technological progress |
| 投稿时间：2025-03-27 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2025.0257 |
| 中文关键词: 农业社会化服务 农地碳排放强度 双向固定效应模型 中介效应 门槛效应 |
| 英文关键词: agricultural socialized service carbon emission intensity two-way fixed effects model mediating effect threshold effect |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（42171263）；农业农村部种植业管理司项目（072510008）；2022年百山祖国家公园“揭榜挂帅”项目（2022JBGS07） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为探讨农业社会化服务对农地碳排放强度的影响效应及作用机理，本研究从规模经营和技术进步的视角，基于 2011—2020年我国24个省份的面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型和门槛效应模型，探讨农业社会化服务和农地碳排放强度之间的关系。结果表明：2011—2020年我国农业社会化服务总体呈上升趋势，农业社会化服务的示范效应进一步增强，2011—2020年农地碳排放强度总体呈下降趋势，区域差异逐渐扩大；农业社会化服务显著降低农地碳排放强度，并通过稳健性检验；异质性分析表明，该负向影响在不同服务类型、作物种类、产区分布和经营规模下具有显著异质性；农业社会化服务通过农业规模经营降低农地碳排放强度；农业技术进步具有双重门槛效应，当农业机械化水平低于门槛值 1.929时，农业社会化服务会显著提升农地碳排放强度；位于门槛值1.929~2.205之间时，则转变为显著的负向影响；高于门槛值2.205时，该负向影响被削弱。因此，建议积极推动农业规模化经营和适度农业机械化技术应用，增强农业社会化服务，有效减少碳排放。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To explore the impact of agricultural socialized services on carbon emission intensity from farmland, this study investigated the underlying mechanisms and effects from the perspectives of scale management and technological progress. Based on panel data from 24 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, a two-way fixed effects model, a mediation effect model, and a threshold effect model were employed. The results indicated that from 2011 to 2020, the level of agricultural socialized services in China exhibited an overall upward trend, with a progressively enhanced demonstration effect. In contrast, farmland carbon emission intensity generally declined, though regional disparities gradually widened. Agricultural socialized services were found to significantly reduce carbon emission intensity of farmland, which was confirmed by robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis revealed that this negative effect varied significantly across different types of services, crop varieties, regional distributions, and operational scales. Agricultural socialized services mitigated farmland carbon emission intensity by promoting agricultural scale management. Furthermore, agricultural technological progress exhibited a dualthreshold effect：when the level of agricultural mechanization was below the first threshold of 1.929, agricultural socialized services significantly increased carbon emission intensity; when the level fell between 1.929 and 2.205, a significant negative impact was observed; and when it exceeded the upper threshold of 2.205, the negative effect was attenuated. Therefore, it is recommended to actively promote agricultural scale management and moderate mechanization technology application, enhance agricultural socialized services, and effectively reduce carbon emissions. |
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