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| 基于粮食安全贡献度的新疆耕地与粮食供求格局变化及影响研究 |
| Changes and impacts of cultivated land and grain supply and demand pattern in Xinjiang based on the degree of food security contribution |
| 投稿时间：2024-09-05 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0706 |
| 中文关键词: 耕地变化 粮食供求格局 消费统计法 粮食安全贡献度 新疆 |
| 英文关键词: cultivated land change grain supply and demand pattern statistical method of consumption contribution to food security Xinjiang |
| 基金项目:新疆维吾尔自治区高校基本科研业务费科研项目（XJEDU2023J018）；新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金面上项目（2021D01A82）；新疆维吾尔自治区地方公派出国留学项目 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为探究新疆耕地与粮食供求格局变化以及耕地变化对粮食生产的影响，本研究采用土地利用动态度模型分析 2000—2020新疆耕地和粮食种植面积时空变化，结合消费统计法和粮食安全贡献度（FSP）模型测算新疆对国家以及各地州对新疆粮食安全的贡献，进一步厘清新疆粮食供求时空格局变化，利用敏感度模型探究耕地面积变化对粮食生产的影响。结果表明：耕地面积和粮食播种面积整体稳步增加，分别增加2.877×106 hm2和8.070×105 hm2；小麦和玉米种植面积约占80%，20 a间玉米种植面积增加近1倍，小麦种植面积小幅减少；粮食供给始终大于需求，供求由紧平衡逐渐过渡为有一定盈余空间；新疆对国家粮食安全贡献度均为正值，均值为2.3%，做出一定的贡献；各地州对新疆的粮食安全贡献度空间上差异显著，重心由南疆向北疆转移；合理的耕地保护和土地规划的积极影响促使耕地面积的提升与粮食生产量的增加互相促进。研究表明，基于粮食安全贡献度科学测度地区粮食供求状况，对推动地区粮食工作和相关政策的制定具有重要参考意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To explore Xinjiang cultivated land and grain supply and demand structure changes and its contribution to national food security, and the effects of cultivated land change on food production, this study used land use dynamics to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of cultivated land and grain planting area in Xinjiang, combined with the consumption statistics method and the contribution degree of food security（FSP）model to estimate the contribution of Xinjiang to the national and regional grain security in Xinjiang, and further clarified the spatio-temporal changes of grain supply and demand in Xinjiang, used sensitivity model to describe the impact of cultivated land area change on grain production from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that, first, the overall cultivated land and grain sown area increased steadily, respectively increasing 2.877×106 hm2 and 8.070×105 hm2; wheat and corn account for about 80% of the area, and the corn planted area increased by nearly one handred percent during 20 years, while the wheat planted area decreased slightly. Second, the grain supply was always greater than demand, and supply and demand gradually transition from a tight balance to a certain surplus space; Third, the contribution of Xinjiang to national food security was always positive, and the average was 2.3%, making a certain contribution. Forth, the contribution of different states to Xinjiang′s food security varied significantly in space, and the center of gravity shifted from south to north. Reasonable protection of cultivated land and the positive influence of land planning led to an augment between cultivated land area and grain production. The research shows that scientifically measuring regional grain supply and demand based on the contribution degree of food security is of great significance for promoting regional grain work and formulating relevant policies for ensuring national food security. |
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