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| 干旱地区耕地系统韧性水平测度及动态演进——以新疆为例 |
| Measurement and dynamic evolution of resilience of cultivated land system level in arid areas：taking Xinjiang as an example |
| Received:March 17, 2024 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0166 |
| 中文关键词: 新疆，干旱地区，耕地系统韧性，动态演进，区域差异 |
| 英文关键词: Xinjiang, arid area, resilience of cultivated land system, dynamic evolution, regional difference |
| 基金项目:兵团社科重点项目（19ZD03） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | JI Zenan | College of Economics and Management, Tarim University, Aral 843300, China | | | WANG Pengcheng | College of Economics and Management, Tarim University, Aral 843300, China | pengchengw@126.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为探析干旱地区耕地系统韧性发展水平，本研究从抵抗能力、适应能力和重构能力三个维度构建耕地系统韧性综合评价指标体系，基于2011—2021年新疆14个地州（市）数据，运用熵值法、核密度、Markov转移估计矩阵、Dagum基尼系数等方法对新疆耕地系统韧性进行测度与分析。结果表明：新疆耕地系统韧性总体从2011年的0.122上升至2021年的0.144，研究区域内北疆的耕地系统韧性最高，均值为 0.158；新疆耕地系统韧性指数各维度由高到低依次为适应能力、重构能力和抵抗能力，均值分别为0.145、0.121和 0.116；新疆耕地系统韧性发展水平在曲折中上升，表现出梯度效应，区域差异逐渐拉大，各地州、市从低等级跨越到较高等级的难度较大；耕地系统韧性发展水平差异呈现出一定的发散趋势，组内差异与组间差异是新疆各地州（市）耕地系统韧性发展不充分、不平衡的主要原因。研究表明，新疆耕地系统韧性总体水平仍较低且区域差距较大，存在较大的提升空间。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to explore the development level of resilience of cultivated land system in arid areas, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of resilience of cultivated land system from the three dimensions of resistance, adaptation and reconstruction ability, and applies the entropy value method, kernel density, Markove transfer estimation matrix, Dagum Gini coefficient and other methods to measure and analyse the resilience of cultivated land system of Xinjiang. The results showed that Xinjiang resilience of cultivated land system in general increased from 0.122 in 2011 to 0.144 in 2021, and the highest mean value of resilience of cultivated land system in the northern Xinjiang was 0.158; Xinjiang resilience of cultivated land system index sub-dimensions in descending order of adaptive capacity, reconstructive capacity, and resistance capacity with mean values of 0.145, 0.121, and 0.116, respectively. The development level of Xinjiang's resilience of cultivated land system rised in twists and turns, showing a gradient effect, with regional differences gradually widening, and it was more difficult for various prefectures and municipalities to cross over from a low grade to a higher grade. The differences in the development level of the resilience of cultivated land system showed a certain dispersion trend, and the intragroup differences and inter-group differences were the main reasons for the inadequate and unbalanced development of resilience of cultivated land system in various prefectures and municipalities in Xinjiang. The study shows that the overall level of resilience of cultivated land system in Xinjiang is still low and the regional gap is large, and there is much room for improvement. |
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