粮食产销区视角下中国耕地流转非粮化的时空特征与形成机制

徐羽; 罗珍珠; 徐丽婷; 黄颖; 傅钰

文章摘要

粮食产销区视角下中国耕地流转非粮化的时空特征与形成机制

Temporal-spatial characteristics and formation mechanism of non-grain cultivation in transferred farmland in China from the perspective of grain production and sales areas

Received:May 30, 2025

DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2025.0511

中文关键词: 耕地非粮化，土地流转，时空演变，地理加权回归，中国

英文关键词: non-grain production of farmland, farmland transfer, temporal-spatial variation, geographically weighted regression, China

基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（42201232）；江西省社会科学基金项目（22YJ39）；江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目（GJJ2200553）

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Xu Yu	Institute of Ecological Civilization, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China Technology Innovation Center for Land Spatial Ecological Protection and Restoration in Great Lakes Basin, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanchang 330025, China School of Public Administration, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China
Luo Zhenzhu	Institute of Ecological Civilization, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China Technology Innovation Center for Land Spatial Ecological Protection and Restoration in Great Lakes Basin, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanchang 330025, China School of Public Administration, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China
Xu Liting	School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China	liting.xu@jxnu.edu.cn
Huang Ying	Institute of Ecological Civilization, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China Technology Innovation Center for Land Spatial Ecological Protection and Restoration in Great Lakes Basin, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanchang 330025, China School of Public Administration, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China
Fu Yu	School of Business Administration, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China

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中文摘要:

为探究我国流转耕地非粮化的时空分异特征及其形成机制，本研究基于粮食产销区视角，以2009—2023年全国农村经营管理统计数据为基础，综合应用区域统计、空间重心模型和地理加权回归模型等方法分析耕地流转非粮化的时空演变特征与影响因素。结果表明：全国耕地流转非粮化面积持续增长，2019年耕地流转非粮化面积为1.733×10⁷ hm²，占流转耕地总面积的47%，达到峰值水平；不同粮食生产功能区的耕地流转非粮化面积扩张速度差异较大，粮食产销平衡区、主产区和主销区的年均增长率分别为11.9%、8.3%和4.6%。在耕地流转非粮化率方面，粮食主销区和产销平衡区明显高于粮食主产区，并且粮食主产区呈逐渐下降趋势，而产销平衡区为显著上升趋势。耕地质量、人均耕地规模、机械化水平和农业补贴对非粮化具有抑制作用，而劳动力价格和土地成本则对非粮化产生促进作用。研究表明，流转耕地呈现出在粮食主产区趋粮化和非主产区非粮化的分化特征，此分异特征由耕地资源禀赋、经济效益、技术进步和补贴政策等因素综合作用形成，需根据不同粮食生产功能区特点实施非粮化分类治理与管控。

英文摘要:

To explore the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and formation mechanisms of non-grain cultivation in transferred farmland（NGCTF）in China, this study, from the perspective of grain production and sales areas, analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of NGCTF based on the National Statistics Data on Rural Operation and Management from 2009 to 2023. The study employed regional statistics, spatial center of gravity model, and geographically weighted regression model, etc. Results indicated that the area of NGCTF had continuously increased nationwide. In 2019, the area of NGCTF reached 1.733×10⁷ hm², accounting for 47% of the total area of transferred farmland, marking its peak. The expansion rate of NGCTF varied significantly across different grain production functional areas, with the annual growth rates in grain balanced producing and consuming areas, major grain production areas, and major grain sales areas being 11.9%, 8.3%, and 4.6%, respectively. Regarding the rate of NGCTF, it was significantly higher in grain balanced producing and consuming areas than in major grain production areas, and the rate in major grain production areas had shown a gradual decline, while the rate in grain balanced producing and consuming areas had shown a significant upward trend. Factors such as land quality, per capita farmland size, mechanization level, and agricultural subsidies had a suppressive effect on non-grain cultivation, while labor costs and land costs promoted non-grain cultivation. The study suggests that the differentiation pattern of grainization in major grain production areas and non-grainification in other regions is formed through a combination of factors such as land resource endowment, economic benefits, technological progress, and subsidy policies. Thus, non-grain cultivation management and control should be classified and tailored to the characteristics of different grain production functional areas.

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