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| 气候变化背景下非洲大蜗牛在福建省的适生性预测 |
| Prediction of habitat suitability for the Achatina fulic in Fujian Province under climate change scenarios |
| Received:November 28, 2025 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2025.1211 |
| 中文关键词: 外来入侵物种，非洲大蜗牛，MaxEnt模型，环境变量，适生区 |
| 英文关键词: invasive alien specy, Achatina fulica, MaxEnt model, environmental variable, suitable habitat |
| 基金项目:福建省科技厅引导性项目（2025N0019） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | Qiu Xiaowen | Fujian Agro-ecological Environment and Energy Technology Station, Fuzhou 350003, China |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 非洲大蜗牛（Achatina fulica）繁殖能力强、危害寄主广，是多种寄生虫和病原菌的传播媒介，对区域生态安全和人类健康构成严重威胁。为评估气候变化背景下非洲大蜗牛在福建省的潜在适生区分布与时空扩散趋势，本研究通过实地调查、历史分布数据及 WorldClim 气候因子，采用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型，预测了当前与未来两阶段（2041—2060年和 2061—2080年）两种碳排放情景下（SSP126、SSP585）非洲大蜗牛在福建省的潜在分布。结果表明：模型预测结果的曲线下面积值为 0.957，预测结果精确。最冷季度平均温度和最湿季度降水量是影响非洲大蜗牛分布的主要环境变量，贡献率总和可达67.0%。当前，非洲大蜗牛在福建省适生区面积为1.43×104 km2，占全省总面积的11.86%，主要分布在厦门、漳州和泉州等闽南沿海地区。在未来气候变暖背景下，其适生区整体呈北移趋势，且在2041—2060年阶段迁移幅度最为显著，分布质心均向安溪县方向移动。针对非洲大蜗牛的低、中和高适生区，可分别采取早期预警-预先防范、主动预警-高效灭除和常态监测-综合治理的差异化分区管控措施，降低其扩散风险。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The giant African snail（Achatina fulica）is characterized by high reproductive capacity and a broad host range. It also serves as a vector for various parasites and pathogens, posing serious threats to regional ecological security and human health. This study aimed to assess the potential suitable habitat distribution and spatiotemporal expansion trends of Achatina fulica in Fujian Province under climate change scenarios. Based on field survey data, historical occurrence records, and WorldClim climatic variables, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the current and future potential distribution of Achatina fulica in Fujian Province under two carbon emission scenarios（SSP126 and SSP585）for two future periods（2041-2060 and 2061-2080）. The results showed that the model performed well, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve（AUC）value of 0.957, indicating high predictive accuracy. The mean temperature of the coldest quarter and precipitation of the wettest quarter were identified as the dominant environmental variables influencing the distribution of Achatina fulica, with a combined contribution rate of 67.0%. Under current climatic conditions, the suitable habitat area of Achatina fulica in Fujian Province was 1.43×104 km2, accounting for 11.86% of the total area, and was mainly distributed in the southern coastal regions, including Xiamen, Zhangzhou, and Quanzhou. Under future climate warming scenarios, the suitable habitat showed a clear northward expansion trend, with the most pronounced shift occurring during 2041-2060. The centroid of suitable habitat shifted toward Anxi County. For the low, medium, and high suitability areas of Achatina fulica in Fujian Province, differentiated zoning control measures such as early warning - advance prevention, active warning - efficient eradication and regular monitoring - integrated management can be implemented respectively to reduce the risk of its spread. |
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