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| 基于动态稳定性验证和CA-Markov预测的耕地时空演变特征——以赣榆区为例 |
| Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of cultivated land based on dynamic stability verification and CAMarkov prediction： a case study of Ganyu District |
| 投稿时间：2023-02-28 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2023.0110 |
| 中文关键词: 耕地变化，动态稳定性，CA-Markov模型，时空格局，赣榆区 |
| 英文关键词: cultivated land change, dynamic stability, CA-Markov model, spatiotemporal pattern, Ganyu District |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（72004100）；江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目（2021SJA0088） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为阐明耕地变化动态稳定性验证的重要性，预测“十四五”目标年（2025年）与远景目标年（2035年）的耕地变化，本研究运用耕地面积变异系数、地理集中指数、不平衡指数及趋势分析法，从耕地数量、空间分布与空间发展趋势三个方面，对江苏省连云港市赣榆区耕地变化的动态稳定性进行验证，并运用CA-Markov模型对未来不同政策情境下的耕地变化情况进行模拟。结果表明，2009—2016年赣榆区耕地总量持续下降，未存在较大反复与波动，耕地空间分布较为均衡，耕地占用与补充的空间发展趋势较为连续，总体上具有较高的动态稳定性，符合运用CA-Markov模型的前提条件。预测在各种政策情境下，2025年之前赣榆区将经历快速的耕地非农化过程，至2035年耕地减少的速率有所放缓，具有区位优势的赣榆北部地区将是未来耕地非农化的重点区域，耕地将逐渐向南部内陆地区转移。研究表明，对耕地变化的动态稳定性进行验证可以有效保证CA-Markov模型的模拟精度，赣榆区未来的耕地保护形势不容乐观，应合理协调经济发展与耕地保护之间的关系，保障社会、生态与粮食安全。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study sought to clarify the importance of verifying the dynamic stability of cultivated land change and, on this basis, to predict cultivated land change in the “14th Five-Year Plan” target（2025）and long-term target years（2035）of Ganyu District. The aim was to provide reference data for relevant academic research and future cultivated land protection projects. The coefficient of variation of cultivated land, geographical concentration index, imbalance index, and trend analysis method were used. The dynamic stability of cultivated land change in Ganyu District was verified in three aspects：cultivated land quantity, spatial distribution, and spatial development trend. The future change in cultivated land under different policy scenarios was simulated by a CA-Markov model. The total amount of cultivated land in the Ganyu District continued to decline without major repetition or fluctuation. The spatial distribution of cultivated land was relatively balanced, and the spatial development trends of cultivated land occupation and supplementation were relatively continuous. On the whole, the changing process of cultivated land had high dynamic stability, consistent with the preconditions of the CA-Markov model. Under various policy scenarios, Ganyu District will still experience a rapid process of cultivated land conversion before 2025, and the rate of cultivated land reduction will slow by 2035. With regional advantages, the northern area of Ganyu District will be the key area of cultivated land conversion in the future, and cultivated land will gradually transfer to the southern inland area. Verifying the dynamic stability of cultivated land changes can effectively improve the simulation accuracy of the CA-Markov model. The future situation of cultivated land protection in Ganyu District is not optimistic. The relationship between economic development and cultivated land protection should be reasonably coordinated to ensure social, ecological, and food security. |
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