文章摘要
陶双骏,邵光成,苏江霖,李育飞,张新宇,张邵华.小流域面源污染风险评估研究——基于多分类有序离散选择模型[J].农业环境科学学报,2017,36(7):1293-1299.
小流域面源污染风险评估研究——基于多分类有序离散选择模型
Research on small watershed non-point source pollution risk assessment:Based on the ordered multi-classification discrete choice model
投稿时间:2017-01-09  
DOI:10.11654/jaes.2017-0047
中文关键词: 生态清洁小流域  面源污染  风险评估  多分类有序离散选择模型
英文关键词: ecological clean small-watershed  non-point source pollution  risk assessment  ordered multi-classification discrete choice model
基金项目:江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目
作者单位E-mail
陶双骏 南方地区高效灌排与农业水土环境教育部重点实验室, 河海大学水利水电学院, 南京 210098  
邵光成 南方地区高效灌排与农业水土环境教育部重点实验室, 河海大学水利水电学院, 南京 210098 sgcln@126.com 
苏江霖 淮安市淮安区水利局, 江苏 淮安 223200  
李育飞 淮安市淮安区水利局, 江苏 淮安 223200  
张新宇 沭河水利管理局, 山东 临沂 276000  
张邵华 山东水利职业学院, 山东 日照 276800  
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中文摘要:
      在目前流域环境污染监测体系基础上,筛选并建立小流域面源污染风险评估指标体系,通过因子分析法提取小流域面源污染风险评估等级的潜在变量,建立基于有序多分类离散选择模型的小流域面源污染风险评估模型,提供具体的风险等级评判计算方法,并利用15个流域的面源污染监测数据对模型进行了实例分析。结果表明,该风险评估模型能够较好地挖掘污染风险等级与影响因子之间的关系,并能够计算评估流域面源污染不同风险程度的概率,同时可利用观测的指标变量表示潜在的指标变量,满足小流域监测资料缺乏的实际情况。相比于其他预测模型,该模型能更好地为小流域面源污染治理提供参考。
英文摘要:
      The ordered multi-classification discrete choice model was introduced into the risk assessment of non-point source pollution in small watersheds.Based on small watershed environmental monitoring data,sediment concentration,ammonia nitrogen,total nitrogen,total phosphorus,and chemical oxygen demand,which influence the water environment of small watersheds,were selected as independent variables and pollution risk level as a dependent variable,to establish the discrimination formula of the non-point pollution risk.A Kaiser-Meyer-Olkintest of sampling adequacy and Bartlett's test of sphericity were carried out to test the correlation of the model sample data.Goodness of fit and model predictive ability test were used to evaluate the model correctness.The results show that the model sample data have good correlation,and the model has excellent performance and forecasting ability.Unlike other models,the logistic distribution model has no requirement for the variable distribution.It can evaluate different levels of nonpoint source pollution influencing factors quantitatively and calculate the probability of different non-point source pollution risks.This study used the potential indicators to calculate model param eters,which conforms to the current situation of small watersheds in China.As a result,source pollution risk assessment based on the ordered multi-classification discrete choice model is a better method for small watershed non-point source pollution risk assessment.
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